Poll Dancing

Monday Monmouth came out with a poll giving Hillary Clinton a 12 point lead over Donald Trump.

My reaction? A big yawn.

I had read a warning about it at conservativetreehouse blog. The blogger pointed out that the pollster, Patrick Murray, is a longtime progressive. It noted, “Monmouth, as a polling outfit, NEVER show the baseline raw data, and never show the assumptions they insert into their methodology. As a consequence, don’t believe for a moment that today’s release will be anything dissimilar than their prior historic nonsense.

“It is important to understand why this polling release is so critical for Monmouth. The way the entire rigging works is someone has to first ‘create’ the narrative, that’s where Monmouth comes in. Then the media promotes the narrative; that’s the critical role of the MSM in pushing the narrative through the poll. Lastly, Chris Wallace (Fox debate moderator) will use a combination of the polling release, along with the narrative, to frame his questioning during the debate on Wednesday.

“It’s just how they roll.”

Indeed.
Later on his radio show, Rush Limbaugh mentioned the poll. He had some doubts about it, too. Then he went on to say that as the election gets closer, the polls will adjust to a more realistic number so as to maintain future credibility.

I don’t expect that at all. I imagine they will show Hillary with a lead to the very end. If you’ll recall, Brexit was supposed to fail, too, according to polls at the end. It didn’t. They were way off.

I don’t expect pollsters to change their strategy much because they know their numbers will quickly be forgotten. Do you remember what was predicted in the Romney Obama matchup of ’12? Neither do I.

Media outlets will want to influence and discourage our side even on the day of the election.

Another reason they will continue to push Hillary’s numbers is to skew them. Monmouth is an outlier, but it helps the Real Clear politics average to give a higher number for Clinton. By the way, I don’t believe in the averaging of polls at all. It’s either the right number or it isn’t.

And don’t forget: if it is a tight race and Trump wins, Clintonites will point to the polls as justification for calling it fraudulent.

No, don’t expect any changes in the polls.

You can keep your eye on the LA Times Poll, proved right in the past two elections, with Trump up for many days. Rasmussen is more reliable, too.

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