A 2018 Debacle

The pundits have been busy throughout 2017 talking about an impending electoral disaster for Republicans in 2018. Even though they failed in all five House elections for people who left to serve the Trump administration, that doesn’t seem to matter. They’ve been fueled by the Virginia gubernatorial Dem win and the Alabama Senate win.
Then there is the split between everyday Republicans and the GOPe. Surely there’s a civil war there, say the media.

The media keep fanning the flames for them, certain that the Democrats will gain back the House and the Senate next year.

I for one doubt it.

Whose fundraising is down? It’s not the RNC. We just had a fabulous November.

We control most state houses. The Dems don’t and they have isolated their voters to the coasts. They no longer have much say in the Midwest or rural communities. They shut them out in 2016. President Trump appealed to them and still does with policies and jobs favorable to deplorable workers.

The Democrats have been obsessed with Hillary Clinton, although that has a lot to do with Hillary’s obsession with Hillary Clinton. Barely a day goes by that she’s not yakking on some TV show – here or abroad – spewing her bitterness and spite. If she wasn’t an attractive candidate before, she really isn’t now. But she sticks around like garlic pasta and raw onions in your salad, spoiling the taste of everything else that comes later. They are stuck with her. She won’t go away.

Then there is the question of what Democrats stand for. More and more it’s for socialism. Will that win in a booming economy in 2018? No. That’s why the tax cut is kryptonite for them. The obvious material benefits it will provide when it starts showing up in paychecks will be hard to object to. Believe it or not, Dems, people actually like having a little more in their wallets.

Another thing Democrats represent is identity politics. Not one Democrat seems capable of resisting assigning Americans to categories. The revolt against political correctness shows that everyday Americans have had enough of this compartmentalization. Can’t we just be people? Not to a Democrat.

The sexual harassment accusations have also hit the Democrats hard. Most of the players announced have been either liberal officials or liberal endorsers. They keep trying to pin sexual harassment on Trump, but every time it ricochets back on them. And apparently there is more to come for them.

Some of these points have been made by Five Thirty Eight, the Lefty blog that gave Hillary about a 93% chance of winning the presidency:

Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats.

In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York — states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states — think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia — that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations.

In 2016, Trump lost the national popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, but Republicans won the median House seat by 3.4 points and the median Senate seat by 3.6 points — that’s the widest Senate gap in at least a century and tied with 2012 for the widest House disparity in the last half-century.

The Senate is where the GOP has the largest built-in advantage, since so many Democratic voters are concentrated in a few large states:

Today, Republicans don’t even need to win any “swing states” to win a Senate majority: 52 seats are in states where the 2016 presidential margin was at least 5 percentage points more Republican than the national outcome. By contrast, there are just 28 seats in states where the margin was at least 5 points more Democratic, and only 20 seats in swing states.

With Democrats poised to be the minority party in the Senate for as far as the eye can see, the case for doing away with the filibuster is overwhelming. Still, Republicans can plausibly look forward to filibuster-proof Senate majorities:

Republicans would need to obtain 60 seats would be to win every seat in the 30 states that Trump won — no Clinton states needed. That’s a plausible outcome over a few election cycles, thanks to today’s extraordinarily high rates of straight-ticket voting — if the basic contours of the nation’s political geography don’t drastically change in the next decade.

The implications beyond Congress, especially for the Supreme Court, should deeply worry Democrats.

Then there is President Trump himself. He understands, better than the Dems, the art of war. He has gathered his previous campaign staffers including Corey Lewandowski and Kellyanne Conway, to plan out their strategy. He’ll be on the road campaigning for Republicans. If he was a magnet before, he’s even more of one as president.

The Dems always overreach, too, and they are always overconfident. That’s not been working for them. They’ll be sure to step in it once again.

Even Newt Gringrich agrees with me. He writes, “The great political surprise of 2018 will be the size of the Republican victory.

“After members of the elite media have spent two years savaging President Trump, lying about Republican legislation, and reassuring themselves that Republican defeat was inevitable, the size of the GOP victory in 2018 will be an enormous shock.”

So turn off the pundits and shrug off your pessimism. It’s not deserved.

... Leave a Reply