One America News political correspondent Neil W. McCabe had a fascinating interview with Daniel Perrin.
“Daniel Perrin was for many years a top staffer for Senator Jesse Helms before he became a Republican consultant and strategist,” reported McCabe. “Perrin told One America News that his proprietary model of House and Senate races cannot predict individual races, but its macroanalysis predicts that Democrats pick up seats in the House but not enough to take control of the lower chamber.”
Perrin said, “Over the last four cycles I’ve measured the accuracy of the Senate elections about 95-96% and in the House 91-92%.”
Perrin said he relies on polling, but also economic data and other elements.
“There are a bunch of other factors and a bunch of other weightings and when you do the algorithm out the results are pretty fascinating.”
Republicans now hold a 51-49 seat advantage in the Senate and Perrin says before the Kavanaugh confirmation fight the Democrats were doing well. They defend 26 seats compared to only 9 seats for the Republicans.
“Prior to the results of the Kavanaugh debacle – from the Democrats’ perspective – it was showing that Republicans would gain one seat. And then it moved to two seats, three seats and as of today the net gain for the Republicans is four seats,” Perrin said.
Perrin added, “the House side has had a similar progression. Democrats were up substantially and they’ve steadily lost ground. I now show them picking up six seats.”
McCabe said that is well short of the 23 seats Democrats need to take over the lower chamber, but it could go as high as eleven seats depending on economic and other news between now and the election.
“Perrin said one of the reasons why his numbers are so different from the other polls and election models is that he has a more realistic assessment of turnout. This was seen in 2016 when so many people were wrong because they did not properly qualify likely voters.”
Perrin added, “Democrats thought their likely voter in Philly would give them 92% turnout. 84% they lose the entire state because of an 8 point delta in the black vote in Philly.”
McCabe continued, “Another important factor helping Republicans that is not properly weighted is President Donald Trump.”
Perrin: “The best description I’ve heard about Trump as a campaigner is that he is a monster. He can literally have tens of thousands of people standing outside a stadium that fits tens of thousands of people. It’s not seen in American politics.”