A Crushing Victory?

As election day grows nearer, so do our fears about the outcome. That is completely normal, given the path of recent elections. Anyone who lived through the disaster of the 2000 election recalls how victory was snatched from George W. Bush and stretched out to a month of pure torture. No one wants a repeat of hanging chads, lawyers and drooling journalists.

The polls are once again against our candidate. But does this matter at all?

Kevin McCullough who gave us this 2020 projection map

He writes at Townhall:

It’s a foregone conclusion and must now be faced.

Republicans have worried. Democrats have gloated. Libertarians, Independents, and Reformers have all weighed in. Now it must be acknowledged President Donald J. Trump is just not capable of winning this Nov. 3.

Perhaps the Democrats have finally found the silver bullet. After the Russia Hoax, Impeachment Farce, Lockdown Lies, Evaporative Economic Policies, Debate Blowups, and CoVid Contraction—they’ve even floated the 25th Amendment—which I only thought really bitter and nasty Never Trumpers would ever embrace.

But none of it has worked. Not even Nancy Pelosi’s prayers for the President’s health could keep him in the hospital for more than three days. And here one week after he contracted it — no one’s even discussing him having it because he’s symptom free and feeling twenty years younger.

So no… Donald J. Trump just doesn’t have what it takes to just win on November 3.

Because he’s going to absolutely crush the election that day. A #Trumpslide if you will.

Now the “smart people” will tell you that’s not possible and that he lags Joe Biden in the polls by margins too big to overcome. If you only look at the selective polls listed in the Real Clear Politics average one might come to that conclusion (Just like they did in 2016).

One thing they won’t tell you though is that the hesitancy to tell pollsters what they think is a real phenomenon. A little more than a month ago Bloomberg published a survey that demonstrated Republicans and Independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to not reveal to pollsters their true thoughts.

So if the polls that seem to point to a Biden win are wrong what was I depending on when I published my prediction map (the first of a few leading up to Election Day).

To be exceedingly clear — I find no evidence of a Biden win outside of the media polls.

But here’s a short list of considerations that give us a better understanding of the race.

Enthusiasm Gap

The candidates already know that the president is winning by a mile. President Trump can’t help but to continue to draw massive crowds (even while in the hospital.) Every weekend, in every state, in hundreds of cities bikers, truckers, boaters, horse and buggy people, and regular pedestrians are having larger and larger participation in various parades of support from Miami to Manhattan and from Beverly Hills to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile Biden has trouble getting more than a dozen to show up at a tour stop in Yuma. And we all know people who say “I didn’t vote for him then,” or “I wasn’t really sure about him in 2016,” who have converted to “I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for him now.”

Black Votes Matter

Is it significant that Candace Owens led a “Back the Blue” march through DC and to the White House yesterday (Oct. 10) consisting of thousands of African American voters? Is it important that President Trump received them? Does it seem to make an impact that President Trump oversaw the fastest job creation for Black Americans with the fastest growth in wages among the poorest Black Americans in the modern era? Evidently it does because he’s currently enjoying (what I perceive to be understated) support anywhere from 18 to 25 percent of Black Americans. When narrowed down to Black men he’s consistently in the low to mid-30s percentage wise. The modern era high for a GOP president is 11 percent. Democrat’s consistently need 90 to 95 percent support of Black voters to win. If Trump gets anything above 11 percent he wins big. If he takes 20 percent or more it starts to reshape states like Pennsylvania where he runs up the score in the west and enjoys enough Black support around Philadelphia so as to win the state convincingly. Carbon copy that for Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, etc.

Latino Support Sans Pandering

Biden also has challenges with Hispanic voters. The president has seen a broad based support with Latinos that similarly to Blacks defies modern era history. One veteran of elections going back multiple decades told me last week that the president may enjoy support as high as 45 to 50 percent of the Hispanic vote. A number that big just seems so unheard of for a Republican. It’s hard for me to grasp. But just realize this: if the president gets anything above 35 percent he will again shatter recent history and entire state compositions begin to shift.

Promises Kept

I’m also very bullish on an old fashioned idea, that if you keep a promise, you’ve earned a second-term. You do realize don’t you that Trump presents the opposite problems of most politicians? Usually a candidate makes a ton of promises and then either breaks them or does very little to fulfill them once in office. Clinton kept three over eight years, Bush kept two (outside of 9/11 related items), Obama a big fat one in his first-term. The president came to office and went to work on day one. He’s lifted more than 2,000 regulations on small businesses, got tax reform done, and started in on his list. By my count 127 promises later he’s still not finished.

It’s still the economy, stupid.

As insulting as it sounds it’s still the bottom line. People vote their pocket book. Voters know this instinctively. Biden has nothing to show for 47 years in DC. The president built the fastest growing economy the world had ever seen. In the past four months he’s produced the fastest job growth in history at just shy of 12 million jobs created, with more than half of those lost only months before due to the virus and ensuing lockdowns. It was precisely the tax reform and deregulation of businesses that allowed the rebound to occur so quickly. And just imagine how much more the recovery would be underway if governors and mayors who are keeping their cities and states locked down for political reasons would allow them to actually open up.

Oh the pundits, Never Trumpers, and Democrats will explain away Biden’s every foible. When he says the voters “don’t deserve to know” his view on a 150-year precedent breaking idea of randomly packing the Supreme Court, they will give him a pass. When the Biden-Harris bus rolls in and six people sit in a gym in big circles drawn on the floor, the media will ignore the contrast of 40,000 supporters on a rainy tarmac in Minnesota.

But this election won’t be decided by the pundits, Never Trumpers, and swamp monsters.

The American people are the only poll that matters.

On November 3rd, President Trump won’t just win, he will break records, shift turn out patterns, and crush his way to the biggest re-election victory since Ronald Reagan.

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