Four more days til the Iowa caucuses scream TV reporters! Who will win? Will they be the winning Republican nominee? Who’s surging? What is the latest poll? It goes on and on.
My advice: turn off the cable news channels. They haven’t a clue who will win. Shun most of the polls; they are all over the map anyhow. Nobody will know until the votes are cast. Period. It’s a waste of time, energy and breath to speculate now.
And whoever wins Iowa doesn’t glide through the other primaries to take the top spot. In fact, most of the Iowa winners have been a flash in the pan. Remember Huckabee? He was the media darling, but just couldn’t continue the momentum. So it will be with some of the candidates after Tuesday.
I don’t see how Bachmann or Santorum survive, even if they place at No. 3. They’ve worked Iowa since summer like a hog in a cornfield, but they haven’t taken hold. They simply don’t have enough money to continue.
Some of the candidates have little or no organization in Iowa. Gingrich, for example, has a disorganized campaign, little money for ads and probably will have trouble getting voters out. And in Iowa, getting your voters to the caucuses is what really matters. No matter who the pollsters say is the most popular, it’s just the votes that count, not opinions.
That’s why all this speculation is useless. After the vote – shocking or not – media people will not own up to their own record of success. They simply move, like locusts, to the next state and set up camp then.
There is still a lot of time for things to happen during the primary season. Even the frontrunners must worry that they will be knocked off. So sit back, relax, and wait to see what happens. Chances are it won’t be what pundits predict.