I wouldn’t get too excited about today’s ADP report of private jobs added for the month. It’s heralded as an indicator of Friday’s unemployment number, but it has missed as much as hit. In other words, a monkey with a dart board is probably as accurate.
Here’s the analysis from ZeroHedge blog:
The highly irrelevant economic noise that is the ADP private payrolls indicator has come in form the month of January, and printed at nearly half of the December number of 325K, which was revised lower to 292K, at 170K, on expectations of 182K. We should be the last to tell readers that anything this unbearably noisy series says is beyond meaningless, but since someone follows it, it bears noting that this was the weakest number since October 2011. Furthermore, with the NFP virtually guaranteed to be a miss for a variety of reasons, this is merely the latest confirmation that economist expectations of the economic recovery ramping up, were short sighted – after all the Chairman has an agenda. Yet what makes this report a total mockery is that in the month in which banks, and the FIRE industry in general, was firing left and right, ADP saw 9K people in financial services added to private payrolls. Ironically the financial jobs “added” were almost as many as the manufacturing jobs, at +10K in January. Who says America is not a manufacturing juggernaut and only exports weapons of financial mass destruction?