Last year the administration was quick to applaud Egyptians gathering in Tahir Square and the later ouster of Hosni Mubarak. President Obama even attempted to take credit for this foreign policy “win.”
He probably would prefer you not think about it now. Looks like the most populous Arab nation sitting next to Israel is headed towards disaster. Bob Hardy at Geostrat blog sees a story most are ignoring, but that should command our attention:
We see some interesting parallels in what is transpiring on the surface in Egypt and beneath it. Egypt continues to descend into violence and chaos, which serves to doom the economy. The country is running out of money and the Generals seem to prefer that an elected government be in place when that occurs rather than their having to take the blame alone. The military has been trying to forge a bond with the MB (Muslim Brotherhood) that will protect its assets and interests, but it may have waited too late. The MB sees this moment as an opportunity to push out the military regime, as the country appears to be more pro-MB than pro-military. The regime is now at risk of having its annual $1.3 billion in U.S. military aid cancelled unless it can promise to maintain order in the country, and abide by the Camp David Accords. Therefore, we see money and political control as the subtext for the chaos that has enveloped the urban areas of the country.
The vote for President seems certain to be advanced, as nominations will be accepted starting February 23rd it appears, and that means that a Presidential election could be held in late April or May. This leaves little time for the writing of a new Constitution. We now expect to see a new Constitution negotiated in advance by the MB and the regime, which will allow the military to maintain control of defense and foreign affairs. Such a plan of action will require a certain amount of trust on both sides that we see lacking, but there is little time to waste.
Wasn’t it Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg who just last week visited Cairo with this advice:
“I would not look to the U.S. Constitution, if I were drafting a constitution in the year 2012. I might look at the constitution of South Africa. That was a deliberate attempt to have a fundamental instrument of government that embraced basic human rights, have an independent judiciary. It really is, I think, a great piece of work that was done.”
So now Egypt can fall into the hands of radical Islamists bent on destroying America and Israel.
Good job, Obama.