Durable Goods’ Big Miss

The durable goods number for January came in at a minus 4.0%. That’s a huge drop, in fact, the largest since January 2009.

Tyler Durden of ZeroHedge blog had analysis:

“And so the transition to the QE3 ‘economic disappointment’ regime begins. Because after the ECB is done with the LTRO it’s over for global QEasing, and the Fed is next. Remember- Bernanke’s semiannual testimony to Congress is tomorrow. Whatever will he say….

Headline Durable Goods plunges from +3.2 to -4% on expectations of -1%
More painfully, Durable goods non-defense ex aircraft down a whopping -4.5% on Exp of -1.3%, down from +3.4%.

Digging between the numbers, via Bloomberg:

Decline in shipments of non-defense capital goods, ex. aircraft, suggests “weak business investment” for 1Q GDP report, says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
Overall decline “mostly” due to contraction in civilian aircraft orders, “slightly” slower pace of new motor vehicles bookings, defense orders, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
Slowdown ex. transport “consistent with the broader slowdown in growth in industrial production.”

... Leave a Reply