Ryder Shares Thoughts on 2012

Tennessee Republican National Committee member John Ryder is optomistic about Republican chances in November. He shared his thoughts on the various races last night at the Midtown Republican Club meeting.

“It’s a winnable election,” Ryder said. “We have good issues.” In the presidential race, Ryder sees a campaign of “two competing visions. Fairness is the key word for the Obama campaign. It’s a fairness that equals sameness and stagnation. Ours is about opportunity; the opportunity to start your own business and the opportunity to prosper. His is one that doesn’t respect the Constitution; our side believes deeply in the Constitution.”

Ryder then went on to talk about factors that will make this election different than 2008. “Obama’s lost the ‘first’ factor. You can only vote for the first black president once. He’s lost the cool factor. That was important to the youth, but with this economy he’s not looking so cool now. And he’s lost some of the left. Those who were obsessed with Bush Derangement Syndrome in ’08 have seen that fizzle now. Democrats have lost some of their energy from 2008, too.”

Romney will have to win three swing states: Ohio, Virginia and Florida. “Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are in play. The number of swing states have increased,” he noted. Ryder believes Romney can play to dissatisfaction with the economy in these states to win them.

Ryder believes Republicans will keep the House. “We may lose 5 seats, but we can win 12,” he believes. “What redistricting did was to take the marginal ones we won in 2010 and make them less marginal,” he said.

As for the Senate, “we need two seats to be in the majority. But getting there will be hard. Olympia Snowe (the Republican Senator from Maine who declined to run again) may have lost us a seat. We’re in play in Nebraska, Virginia and North Dakota. However, it’s almost an effort in futility because the way the Senate is run now you need 60 seats.”

When asked about the Supreme Court decisions on Obamacare and the Arizona immigration bill, Ryder felt that the oral arguments on our side went well. He indicated the logic and law was on our side and could lead to a 5-4 decision in each case, striking down Obamacare and allowing Arizona’s immigration bill to stand. The severability issue in the Obamacare hints that the whole thing may be struck down rather than dismantled piece by piece.

The ruling will come down most probably the last week in June.

Tomorrow: More on Ryder’s inside view of the Repubican primary process.

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