Bet You It’s Worse Than They Tell Us

Today the jobless claims went up from a revised 373,000 to 383,000. Last week it was 370K, so it’s really a rise of 13,000. It’s working it’s way back up to 400K.

The ADP payroll report, considered a harbinger for the monthly unemployment number, was supposed to be 150,000. Instead it registered an even weaker 133,000. We’ll likely see tomorrow an ugly unemployment number.

Adding to the bad news is the GDP. In April the first quarter GDP was predicted to be up 2.5%. Today the up 2.2% was revised to 1.9%. So much for expert opinions.

The recently reported big drop in consumer confidence and it confirms the mood of the country is quite sour.

You wonder if the actual numbers are even worse than what is being reported. Probably so.

ZeroHedge notes: “That the ADP would miss today’s expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow’s NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better – should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar. Which is why the ADP print, which indeed was a miss, of 133K raised eyebrows that it wasn’t bigger. Still, 3rd consecutive miss of expectations in a row, and 4th out of the last 5, it gives the BLS enough rope with which to hang itself, and potentially the president, who may have no choice but to sacrifice job creation “momentum” heading into the presidential race, in order to keep stocks higher.”

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