This morning before the announcement of the June unemployment numbers I thought about the president’s visit to Ohio yesterday and today. I realized then that the number would probably be bad and he knew it.
Forget about the old wives tale about everything being kept secret in Washington. Loose lips spilled the numbers early; that’s probably why he decamped D.C. Obama would want to be out of Washington and away from reporters’ questions. He would also want to be in the critical state of Ohio to reassure them that everything wasn’t as bleak as it is.
So this morning’s 8.2% with only 80,000 jobs added was not a surprise. The ADP report had suggested that 176,000 jobs were added to the private sector and raised hopes among the Democrats that the number would be high. Didn’t happen though.
Actually, the U-6 (unemployment) went from 14.8% in May to 14.9% in June. Those not in the labor force rose by 34,000, the second highest rise ever. The labor participation rate stayed the same at 63.8%, above the April low of 63.6%.
In watching CNBC it was amusing to see ex-Obama official Austin Goolsbee try to make the claim that Obama was doing well. “The job creation of this first term of Obama for all the struggles we’ve had (is) about a million greater than the first term of George Bush…” which caused Rick Santelli to explode. “Who care about Bush? That’s the problem. You guys live in the past,” Santelli said then looked away in disgust.
Bush? The unemployment rate was 5.4 for eight years. That means people weren’t looking for work very much as most were employed. Goolsbee is playing with the data.
Goolsbee continued, “If you look at manufacturing – a big deal in Ohio and throughout the Midwest – manufacturing is having its best couple of years in a very long time in the midst of a tough job market.”
Manufacturing was just down this month. Goolsbee is the one manufacturing here.
Remember the stimulus promised unemployment would not hit above 8%?