Running the Numbers

Everyday it seems someone comes out and tells us of another poll with Romney trailing Obama. Many on our side are puzzled because we can’t conceive of anything good that is happening for the president.

We are told and shown that these polls oversample Democrats (the latest one had D + 13!) but it is difficult to feel comforted by this when the media screams night and day that Obama is ahead.

A blog called DaTechguy decided to look at the numbers from a different perspective. He looked at how party affiliation went and drew some interesting conclusions from it for elections.

He says:

“For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

“Simply put this is a lie.

“Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

“They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

“That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

“That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?”

He then takes a look.

In 2004, Bush won and the Republicans gained 3 Senate seats and 3 House seats with a disadvantage of -1.6% for Republicans and a 1.6% gain for Democrats. In 2006, Republican party identification was down 6.1%, while Democrats were up 6.1%. The result: Dems won 31 House seats and 3 Senate seats.

In 2008, Republican ID was a -7.6%. The Dems won the White House, 8 Senate seats and 21 House seats giving them an across the board majority. In 2010, Republicans had a 1.3% advantage over Democrats and won an amazing 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats.

He then asks:

“What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

“The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

“There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

“The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

“Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

“Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

“I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

“Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

“As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

“Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.”

Bottom line: In August the GOP had a 4.3% party affiliation advantage over Democrats.

This puts the network polls in a new light, doesn’t it?

The whole article can be found at http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition/

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