A Big Day Today

There’s a big force blowing in this country and I’m not talking about Hurricane Sandy.

With today’s news that Romney is ahead in Ohio by two points, things seem to be blowing his way. He is gaining strength as the last days of the campaign approach. His crowds are swelling. More people are deciding on him. He is strengthening.

And he has continued to be above 50% in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls for more than a week. People are going over to his side. Looks like what they call a preference cascade.

BCFoley blog defines a preference cascade as a movement in which “Those who believe they are alone in holding a positive opinion about something are delighted to discover that its fan base is much larger than they believed, and approval quickly snowballs. Anyone who has watched a cult phenomenon go mainstream has witnessed this.”

It started with the first debate, which changed a lot of minds about both Romney and Obama. Viewers felt Romney was more knowledgeable and friendlier than they thought. He exhibited leadership. By contrast, viewers saw a diminished Obama. He was sullen and subdued. They realized he was not the president they thought he was, backed up by disastrous economic data.

The current that had swept Obama into office changed course. It has continued to change in the weeks after that as Romney continued to score in the debates, at campaign stops and at the Al Smith dinner.

Once it gets going, like a volcanic flow, it is unstoppable.

Should be an interesting week.

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