Revisions to the way payroll data firm ADP counts private sector job creation have resulted in a sharp drop in the September employment count.
ADP’s new calculations put the monthly job creation at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.
The firm recently has entered into a partnership with Moody’s Analytics that will change the way the private payroll count is calculated.
The new private payroll count now is actually under Labor’s September job creation total of 114,000, 104,000 of which came from the private sector. The unemployment rate dropped last month to 7.8 percent, as the government said the total number of new workers swelled by 873,000.
Economists expect Friday’s report to show 125,000 new jobs and the jobless rate to hold steady.
When the Labor Department revealed its September job count, it sparked criticism from some quarters that the numbers were being manipulated for political purposes as the November presidential election drew near.
The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government’s numbers indicate.
“It’s huge, no doubt about it,” said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. “Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we’re going to see Friday is going to be a disaster.”
Disaster. Well, consider what Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge found in the report:
What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping… 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical “fix” magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning.
As an added bonus…the US generated +4,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the new release indicates that in the same month, the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs.
No wonder they don’t want to report the jobs number on Friday.