It’s Never Too Early

For polls on a presidential election, that is.

Pollsters seem to be the most industrious of Americans. Maybe they rested the day after Obama’s reelection, but they’re back at it now. For what it’s worth, here’s an early read on Republican presidential candidates courtesy of the Harper Iowa Republican caucus survey:

Marco Rubio 26.50%
Paul Ryan 18.00%
Rick Santorum 13.50%
Rand Paul 12.50%
Chris Christie 12.00%
Scott Walker 2.50%
Not sure 15.00%

Inside the numbers:

Among Republicans who have previously attended a caucus, Rubio leads Ryan 29%-21%. However, among Republicans who plan to attend their first caucus in 2016, Ryan’s support drops to 7%. Paul (22%) and Santorum (19%) fill the void.

Among voters who consider themselves “Very Conservative”, Rubio leads with 32% followed by Ryan at 18%, Santorum at 15%, and Paul at 14%. Among the “Somewhat Conservative”, Rubio’s lead over Ryan shrinks to 3% (25%-22%).

The gender splits are revealing. Paul scores 17% among Men but his support drops to 8% among Women. Ryan seems a similar drop among Women (14%) compared to Men (22%). Conversely, Santorum (15% with Women, 12% with Men) and Christie (13% with Women, 11% with Men) do slightly better with Women.

Paul’s support jumps among 18 to 35 year olds. He leads among these younger voters with 24%, followed by Ryan (21%), Rubio (18%) and Christie (16%).
Among those voting for Congressman Steve King over Congressman Tom Latham in a Senate primary, Rubio leads with 25%, followed by Santorum and Ryan at 18% each.

Among Latham voters, Rubio leads with 36%, followed by Christie at 21% and Ryan at 19%.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

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