The most recent Mason Dixon poll of the Tennessee gubernatorial race would make it look like a Haslam victory is a certainty. In it, 36% of GOP voters in Tennessee said they would vote for Haslam; 25% for Wamp; 20% for Ramsey.
However, an article at www.mainstreetj.com has a link to an analysis by J.R. Lind of the Nashville Post that sheds some light on the race. In a survey done by the Tennessee Newspaper network, pollsters found that there was still much fluidity in the race as voters learn more about the candidates.
Ron Ramsey’s vote as a legislator for a one cent state sales tax in 2002 hurts him when voters find out about it.
Similarly, “46% of voters were less likely to vote for Bill Haslam “after allegations of gas gouging by Haslam’s family’s Pilot Travel centers in the wake of Hurricane Ike,” Lind reports. Wamp loses 37% because he voted for the 2008 bank bailout bill (TARP).
Readers question the poll’s methodology and integrity. In one I saw only 400 people were polled and you are not told what the regional breakdown is. In our state, that’s very relevant. Another notes that Haslam has spent more than $10 million dollars but is now taking on Wamp in TV ads. That often means information from their internal polls are showing vulnerability.
As the Scott Brown race shows in Massachusetts, it’s not over til it’s over. It will be interesting to see if the election verifies or refutes polling.