Conventional Wisdom, RIP

Before the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare came down, experts couldn’t help themselves declaring they knew what it would be.

The Supreme Court is influenced by public opinion, many told us. If they see the American people are against a bill or a topic as expressed in a poll, they are swayed by it. Not that they would ever admit that, but pundits argued it was true. So since a majority of Americans continually polled as against Obamacare, the Supremes would nix it. Well that didn’t happen.

Others said that Justice Kennedy was the swing vote. He alone would decide whether it lived or died. There was even a magazine cover with him on it, asking that question. Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Scalia were the firm conservatives, it was Kennedy we had to worry about. Wrong!

In Trade, that oft quoted betting site showed that 75% of its participants bet the individual mandate was doomed. How does that prognostication look today?

Supreme Court clerks voted 57% that the individual mandate would fall. Since they are right there, they would know the truth, right? Evidently not.

The questioning the justices posed during oral arguments showed – for sure – that they did not believe the constitutionality of Obamacare. The administration’s point man, Solicitor General Donald Verrilli failed miserably court observers said. Thus, the individual mandate was deader than Vladimir Lenin. Well, maybe not so dead, eh?

Ah, conventional wisdom. Before an event or decision it’s smug and assured. Afterwards, if it doesn’t pan out, it’s forgotten.

Too bad so many “journalists” pass on conventional wisdom to readers and viewers. It’s time we put CW in the grave and just go with the facts.

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